2011年6月1日星期三

ARMSTRONG: MY KEYS TO VICTORY FOR THE HEAT AND MAVERICKS

Finally! After a long season of games and wonderful playoff action, we're here at the Finals. Bring it on!

Here are my three keys for victory for both teams and my pick.    

Dallas Keys:

1. Perimeter Defence: Must do a good job keeping LeBron and D-Wade out of the lane and off the free-throw line. The matchups on those two will be crucial. Shawn Marion, DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Kidd will be very important in this series. Have to defend the 3-point shot and close out and contest shooters like Mike Miller, Mike Bibby, Eddie House, James Jones, etc.            

2. Offensive Efficiency: First and foremost, take care of the ball. Don't allow a great transition team like the Heat to get out on the fast break. Take good, high percentage shots because bad shots lead to run outs and easy scores for Miami. Spread the floor and use your draw-and-kick game to get quality 3-point shots. Get enough movement and spacing to allow Dirk Nowitzki to get locked in on his matchup and go to work in the middle of the floor. Keep Miami from loading up defensively on Dirk.              

3. Bench Play: Jason Terry, Jose Barea, Brendan Haywood and Peja Stojakovic must play lights out and overwhelm Miami's bench production and give the Mavs that needed sustained jolt that allowed them to knock off the Lakers. With healthy players like Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, Miami is much improved with their depth but Dallas has to be decidedly better here to swing this series.                              

Miami Keys:  

1. Deal With Dirk: Do we see lots of LeBron covering him? He's done a wonderful job in the playoffs when he's had to play against the best. Do we see lots of Haslem vs. Dirk like we did in the 2006 Finals? Haslem was effective in that matchup. Either way, they have to control Dirk to the point where he's not going crazy for 40+ points and living on the free-throw line. In addition, the better the job they do guarding the 3-point line, which allows Dirk to see more single coverage, the better they'll be. He'll get his, just don't allow him to go nuts and be sound/solid on others.                    

2. Create Tempo: Miami's defence has been excellent in the playoffs and I love how they've made the supreme commitment to it. I'm sure Pat Riley is proud of what he's seen so far. They have the quickness, athleticism, length and grit to frustrate Dallas and create some running chances for their offence if they continue to pay the price. The better the D, the better the shooting percentage will be and the flow style of play will get them going the way they'd like. Wade and LeBron are tough to stop in that style.                      

3. Chris Bosh: He played very well in the Chicago series and he seems to have calmed down and is playing with great confidence. He's been the best big man in both the Chicago and Boston Series leading up to this and they need to make sure they utilize him as they have of late. He needs to be aggressive on the glass and demand that they keep him involved. As much as Dirk can be a problem for the Heat, I think Dallas will be strongly tested if Bosh can continue to play at a high level.                      

My Pick: (Miami in Six): Let me say this, I'm rooting for the Mavs but Miami is better. When I look at this series, I see the Heat's defensive ability, the improving healthy of Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem adding to their depth and the awesome perimeter play of LeBron and D-Wade as being too much for the Mavs. Think it will be a highly entertaining series and if the Mavs second unit can play off the charts, I could see an upset but I doubt it. Let's hope it goes to a Game 7 and we have a classic on our hands. Doubt we'll see the Mavs in this place next June so it's now or never while the Heat will be a force for years to come if they stay healthy and engaged. I go round and round on lots of topics with this series but I still come back to this; I just think and feel that Miami is better and when you have the two perimeter difference makers in this series (Wade and James) in the 21st century NBA game, you've got the edge.

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